Major Economic Models Point Direction on World's Agriculture, Climate ChangeJanuary 15, 2014
A new study, published in a special issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences brings together nine of the world's most important economic modeling teams with a focus on agriculture to compare their results about the future of agriculture. The paper is the product of a multi-year collaboration between leading global research teams under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP).
Findings from the analysis include the following:
- The average direct climate change effect on crop yields is a 17 percent decline, but with significant differences by crop, region, and climate models.
- The final average yield effect is an 11 percent decline as farmers respond by altering input use and management practices on existing agricultural area, expanding production into new areas (an increase in area globally of about 8 percent) and reduced consumption (a decline of about 3 percent).
- The average effect on crop prices is a 20 percent increase, but for some crops in some regions prices don't change at all, while in others the increase is over 60 percent.
- Differences in model results arise from different assumptions made by the modeling groups in three areas: How easy is it to convert nonagricultural land to cropping? How much can farmers respond to higher prices with higher yields? And how much can international trade flows respond to the different regional climate effects?
The Crop Biotech Update is a weekly newsletter of ISAAA, a non-for-profit organization. The CBU is distributed for free to over 23,000 subscribers worldwide to inform them about the key developments in biosciences, especially in agricultural biotechnology. Your support will help us in our mission to feed the world with knowledge. You can help by donating as little as $10.
See more articles:
News from Around the World
- Major Economic Models Point Direction on World's Agriculture, Climate Change
- Biotic Stress: From Gene to Field
- Adesina Calls on Speeding Up Biosafety Bill Approval
- TWAS-ARO Organize S&T Education for Sustainable Development in Arab Region Conference
- US Consumers' Perception of Biotech Crops
- General Mills' Cheerios Reinforce Safety of Biotech Crops
- Fraley: Biotech Wheat Moves Closer to Market
- Researchers Discover Another Pathway for Amino Acid Production in Plants
- Indian National Science Academy Fellowship Conferred on ICRISAT Scientist
- Scientists Discover Plant Mechanism to Stimulate their Growth Even Under Stress
- EFSA: GM Soybean 305423 is as Safe as its Conventional Counterpart
- Wheat Genome Dataset to Help Researchers Improve the Grain
- Overexpression of Glucanase in Maize for Direct Use in Animal Feed
- Gene from Arabidopsis Improves Drought Tolerance of Indica Rice
- Effect of Biotech Maize 5307 on Non-target Organisms
Beyond Crop Biotech
- Coppicing Response Gene in Biomass Willow Identified
- Scientists Use Metabolic Engineering to Modify Omega-3 Fatty Acids in Microalgae
- 2nd Plant Genomics Congress
- 5th World Congress on Biotechnology
Subscribe to CBU: