Global Bioenergy Potential Projections from agricultural land in the year 2050

An international team of researchers from Austria (Alpen-Adria Universitat Klagenfurt e Wien e Graz), Germany (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), and United Kingdom (University of Leeds) attempted to use a biomass balance model to present "integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050, based on a consistent representation of UN-FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization) projections of future agricultural development".

From the analysis (which follows a "food first" approach), they attempted to estimate the global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050. The analysis covers 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates, incorporating data on land use, global net primary production (NPP), and socioeconomic factors.

Some highlights of the results include: (1) Global bioenergy potentials in 2050 excluding forestry are about 100 EJ/year (1 EJ is on Exajoule, a unit of energy equivalent to 1018 joules); this estimate could increase by 60% if "poorer" diets are chosen; (2) Food and livestock feed requirements strongly influence bioenergy potentials; (3) Food crop yields affect the area available for energy crops; (4) Climate-change impacts on bioenergy potentials may be substantial but are highly uncertain.

The full paper is published in the journal, Biomass and Bioenergy (URL above). The full paper is published in the journal, Biomass and Bioenergy (URL above).

Related information on the LPJmL model: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/models/lpjml  http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/research-domains/climate-impacts-and-vulnerabilities/models/lpjml/lpjml_sab_09.pdf.