Prospects for Advancement of Cellulosic Biofuels Assessed by Expert Elicitation

Researchers from the University of Massachusetts (United States) report the use of "Expert Elicitation" for analyzing the relationship between "US Government Research & Development funding and the likelihood of achieving advances in cellulosic biofuel technologies". Expert Elicitation has been defined as a "systematic process of formalizing and quantifying (in terms of probabilities) experts' judgments about uncertain quantities". It finds use as a support tool in decision making and regulatory analyses.

Six distinct technology paths for the conversion of cellulosic biofuels into three different end-products (ethanol, biodiesel, or biogasoline) were considered. These paths included two selective thermal processing paths (pyrolysis, liquefaction), two hydrolysis paths (aqueous processing, fermentation) and two gasification paths (syngas conversion to ethanol, syngas conversion to biodiesel). Technological endpoints included cost, capacity and efficiency.

Results showed that despite disagreements among experts, the "patterns of disagreement" suggested some distinct strategies. Selective thermal processing paths (for bio-oil production from cellulosic feestocks) had generally the "highest expected benefits per dollar funding". This was attributed to the high favorable endpoints of bio-oils and highest probabilities of success. Moderate investments in the hydrolysis paths were also found to be efficient. The full results of the study are published in the journal, Energy (URL above).

Related information on Expert Elicitation: http://www.nusap.net/downloads/reports/Expert_Elicitation.pdf.