Experts Estimate Major Slowdown in Global Crop Yields Because of Climate Change

New research finds that the world faces a small but substantial increased risk over the next two decades of a major slowdown in the growth of global crop yields because of climate change.

Authors David Lobell of Stanford University and Claudia Tebaldi from the National Center for Atmospheric Research say that the odds of a major production slowdown of wheat and corn, even in a warming climate, are not very high, but the risk is about 20 times more significant than it would be without global warming. They added that it may need planning by organizations that are affected by international food availability and price.

Lobell and Tebaldi estimated the odds that climate change could interfere with crop producers' ability to keep up with demand. Using a number of simulation models, they focused on the less likely, but a potentially more dangerous scenario that climate change would reduce yield growth by 10 percent or more.

For more details on this research, read the news release: http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/12006/climate-experts-estimate-risk-rapid-crop-slowdown, or read the open-access paper published in Environmental Research Letters (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074003).