
Sustained Staying Power of Current Biofuels Boom Analyzed
May 11, 2007http://www.nature.com/nbt/journal/v25/n5/abs/nbt0507-491.html
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“Will the current biofuels boom go bust?” This recent article published in Nature Biotechnology (Volume 25 Number 5 May 2007) describes the “current biofuels boom” in the United States, manifested by all-out public and private sector support, like state mandates, incentives, and plans of U.S. automakers to produce “flex-fuel” vehicles. Support runs on the crest of “evolving political outlook” on the problems related to climate change. There are concerns, however, that the biofuels momentum might wane, reminiscent of the ethanol-boom-and-bust scenario in the 1980’s. There are also concerns on the long term economic viability of corn-based ethanol, which is highly sensitive to the up-and-down prices of corn, and the relative prices of oil. Although cellulosic ethanol is presumably cheaper, large scale production plants have not yet become common. The article also mentions concerns related to the fickleness of public interest, and states that the “technology for better biofuels” is not yet completely mature. Nevertheless, experts who were in the 1980’s (previously unsuccessful ethanol scenario) still maintain an optimistic outlook for biofuels, rooted on the fast-paced scientific advances in such fields as enzyme technology and molecular biology..
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