FAPRI-ISU 2011 World Agricultural Outlook Projects Biofuel Trends and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agric

The "World Agricultural Outlook 2011" report by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at Iowa State University (FAPRI-ISU) projects a rise in the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. For this year's report, the FAPRI-ISU used "new modeling capabilities that give 15-year projections for world greenhouse gas emissions and fertilizer use" in some countries.

A 13.6 per cent increase in global emissions from agricultural production is reported over the projection period. The increase is attributed to "an increase in crop area and the associated emissions from agricultural soil management". An increase in per capita meat demand is also reported to contribute to increased emissions, but these are lower than the contributions from cropland emissions.

The model was also able to estimate and index "greenhouse gas emission efficiency (GHGee)" for some countries. The "GHGee" is defined as an aggregate value of agricultural production per ton of GHG emission. Higher GHGee values indicate more efficient GHG emission performance (i.e., a more positive outcome). The European Union and the United States were shown to have high GHGee values at $579 per ton of CO₂-equivalent and $571 per ton of CO₂-equivalent, respectively. The GHGee values for India and China were estimated at $379 per ton of CO₂-equivalent and $324 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, respectively. On the biofuels front, "the United States is projected to import sugarcane ethanol to meet its advanced ethanol mandates at a level of 3.4 billion gallons by 2025, keeping the prices of world ethanol and sugar strong at $2.50 per gallon and 23.2¢ per pound, respectively". The full World Agricultural Outlook 2011 report can be accessed at the FAPRI website (URL above).