A wealth of past experience and knowledge is usually invaluable in projecting future trends and developments. Accordingly, in attempting to assess the global potential for Bt cotton, the information on lepidopteran pests of cotton, their control, as well as the assessment of the impact of Bt cotton reviewed in this chapter, provides a knowledge base on which assumptions and future projections of potential benefits can be based. It is evident that the major lepidopteran pests, particularly the bollworm complex, are a major constraint to increased productivity, and are of economic importance in most cotton-growing countries. Ninety percent of the cotton area in the 50 key countries have medium to high levels of lepidopteran pests (Table 60). This conclusion is not only supported by the voluminous published and unpublished data on the incidence and severity of lepidopteran cotton pest infestations, but corroborated by the need to apply over 80,000 MT of cotton insecticide (a.i.) annually in the 50 key countries that grow cotton throughout the world. The cost of cotton insecticides at the farm level in 2001 was $1.7 billion, with more insecticide consumed by cotton than any other single crop – 20% of the insecticide applied globally to all crops in 2001 was applied to cotton. Damage to cotton from insect pests will vary and is dependent on the level of pest infestation, weather, and variety. Thus, the number of sprays applied to control lepidopteran pests in different countries varies from an average of about 2 sprays per season to 12, and the maximum can reach 30 sprays in countries like China where infestation levels can be extremely high.

(To view Table 60, click here)

The information from the eight Bt cotton-growing countries, reviewed in this chapter, confirms that the technology provides effective control of the bollworm complex, resulting in increased yields, a reduction of at least half in the number of insecticide sprays, leading to increased profitability because of lower production costs and higher yields. Information on severity of pest infestation indicates that approximately 70% of the cotton area in countries such as India and China (Table 60) that grow large areas of cotton, would benefit from Bt cotton. This conclusion is supported by the fact that adoption in the US, which has a medium level of infestation, compared with the high infestation in China and India, has already reached 35% to 40%, and will likely reach 50% as improved technology, such as Bollgard® II and similar products are introduced in the imminent future. Countries such as India and China (already >30% adoption), which together grow 40% of the global area of cotton are expected to exceed 50% adoption of Bt cotton. India is expected to follow the steep Bt cotton adoption curves witnessed in China. Other major cotton-growing countries, like Australia which currently limits adoption of INGARD® to 30%, have eliminated this limitation for Bollgard® II, which is expected to reach 70% adoption in the future. Given high levels of infestation with lepidopteran pests globally and the application of a relatively high number of insecticide sprays, the potential for Bt cotton adoption rates to reach or exceed 50% is also likely in other key cotton countries, which currently do not grow Bt cotton. These include Pakistan (3.1 million hectares) in Asia, Brazil (750,000 hectares) in Latin America, and Mali (516,000 hectares) and Tanzania (392,000 hectares) in west and east Africa respectively.

In the absence of a comprehensive set of field trial data to measure the performance of Bt cotton versus conventional cotton in the 50 key cotton-growing countries globally, estimating the potential savings of insecticides in each country, based on current insecticide usage, can serve as one indication of the relative benefits to individual countries and the potential for Bt cotton globally. Based on data presented in this review, it is evident that Bt cotton can reduce by at least 50% the number of insecticide sprays currently used on conventional cotton, and that a projected maximum of 50% potential adoption rate is realistic given that heavy infestations in India and China, which grow 40% of the world’s cotton, will probably lead to adoption rates exceeding 50%. Thus, potential savings in cotton insecticides for a specific country, as a result of projected adoption of Bt cotton, can be estimated from:

The calculation is essentially the same as that used by Benedict and Altman (2001) to estimate the insecticide savings due to Bt cotton in the US in 1998: 0.45 kg/hectare x reduction in number of sprays due to Bt x hectarage of Bt cotton. Phipps and Park (2002) also used the same formula to calculate the global savings in insecticides due to Bt cotton in 2000, and applied the same principle to estimate insecticide and herbicide savings due to GM maize, GM soybean and GM canola. Applying 0.45 kg a.i./hectare/spray x the global average of approximately 5.5 sprays x global area of cotton (33.4 million hectares in 2001) projects a global usage of 82,665 MT in 2001, which is consistent with the actual usage of 81,200 MT in 2001 (Wood Mackenzie 2002).

Applying the above formula to 50 key cotton-growing countries, using information on cotton hectarage generates estimates of annual insecticide savings (MT a.i.) per country (Table 60). Country savings in insecticides have been allocated to 9 categories, listed in descending order of savings. Given that the data in Table 60 are estimates of the relative share of benefits to individual countries within a global context, caution should be exercised in interpreting the data, because a low global share does not imply that the country in question cannot benefit from Bt cotton. On the contrary, of the 16 countries in the lowest category (Category 9) in Table 60, three countries, South Africa, Mexico and Indonesia, with high lepidopteran infestations, are already benefiting from Bt cotton, with small farmers in the Makhathini Flats of South Africa enjoying significant economic, health and social benefits.

Currently nine countries benefit from growing Bt cotton. For these nine countries the estimates in Table 60 include both current and projected savings of insecticides. Of the 50 countries, the majority, 39 (78%), are developing countries, 3 are West Asian countries (Turkey, Syria and Iran), 4 are Central Asian Republics (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikstan and Kazakhistan), and 4 are industrial countries (USA, Australia, Spain and Greece). Of the 39 developing countries, 22 are from Africa, 9 from Asia, and 8 from Latin America. Thus, in terms of numbers of countries the major potential beneficiaries from Bt cotton are clearly developing countries, with Africa featuring prominently. By and large, cotton is grown by small farmers in developing countries, and hence the extended adoption of Bt cotton to developing countries would be of high value because of the contribution that Bt cotton can make environmentally, healthwise, economically and socially, including the alleviation of poverty and a better quality of life.

Within a global context the relative magnitude of the potential benefits, measured in terms of insecticide savings, most of the global share of benefits would be in Asia (27,790 MT or 80%), followed by the Americas (11%), Africa (8%) and Europe (1%). The fact that Asia captures most of the global benefits does not imply that Bt cotton has no potential for countries in the Americas, Africa and Europe. Countries such as Brazil and Paraguay in Latin America, Burkina Faso and Tanzania in Africa, and Spain in Europe can benefit equally from the technology.

The country savings in insecticides, allocated to 9 categories in Table 60 and listed in descending order of savings, are an indication of the relative potential for Bt cotton in the respective countries. Thus, category 1 with potential savings of > 5,000 MT (a.i.) annually captures 68% of the global potential of Bt cotton and includes China and India which have by far the highest potential for Bt cotton. This is not surprising because China and India have large areas of cotton (#1 and #3 in the world), and have high levels of infestation with lepidopteran pests which require some of the most intensive insecticide spray programs worldwide. China has already adopted Bt cotton on approximately one-third of its 4.8 million hectares of cotton, with expectations that adoption will exceed 50% in the near term. India is probably poised to emulate the high adoption rates of China and the ultimate rate of adoption may exceed that of China due to the high and more uniform level of infestation in different regions of India.

The second category (savings of 1,000 to 5,000 MT) captures 14% of the global potential for Bt cotton and includes the USA, with a large cotton area with a relatively lower level of infestation (medium) and less intensive spray programs than China and India. Pakistan which is also in the second category has not yet adopted Bt cotton, but the potential is high given its relatively large area (3.1 million hectares compared with 5.6 million hectares in the US) and infestation levels that are higher and insecticide control programs that are more intensive than the US.

There are two countries in the third category (savings of 500 to <1,000 MT), Australia and Brazil. Australia, the only industrial country in Asia-Pacific (Oceania) that has high potential for Bt cotton, is already commercializing the product, and will introduce Bollgard® II in 2002; this will enhance the benefits of the new technology and lead to adoption rates well in excess of 50%, probably around 70%. Brazil, with 750,000 hectares of cotton and medium levels of infestation, is the notable country in the Americas with high potential for Bt cotton but conspicuous by its absence amongst the list of countries which have adopted the technology.

In Category 4 (savings of 400 to <500 MT), Uzbekistan features as one of the countries. Based on limited information, lepidopteran populations are thought to be low in Uzbekistan and the other three Central Asian States and thus the potential for Bt cotton is more uncertain. More information is required from the four central Asian countries to confirm the infestation levels and the relative importance of the different pests, as well as the efficacy of extensive biological control programs and the scope and extent of insecticide control programs.

Category 5 (savings of 300 to <400 MT) includes only one country, Burkina Faso in West Africa, which has high potential and where a significant area of cotton (350,000 hectares) is subject to heavy infestations of lepidopteran insect pests that require 7 to 8 insecticide sprays per season.

Category 6 (savings of 200 to <300 MT) includes one west Asian country (Turkey), two from West Africa (Mali and Benin), and Egypt from North Africa. Egypt represents a high potential opportunity and is unique in that it grows the extra long staple G. barbadense, as opposed to G. hirsutum. Egypt has already tested Bt cotton in contained facilities and there is a probability that it may field-test Bt cotton in the near term. Bt cotton field trials have been conducted in Turkey where the lepidopteran pests are of medium to low severity and there may be some potential. Both Mali and Benin have high levels of lepidopteran pests, have shown interest in the technology and have high potential.

Category 7 (savings of 100 to <200 MT) has 12 countries including three from Asia (Turkmenistan, Myanmar and Iran), six from Africa (Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Mozambique and Cameroon), one from Latin America (Paraguay), and two from Europe (Spain and Greece). All the African, and Latin American countries and Myanmar have medium to high infestation and high potential whereas potential is lower and more uncertain in Turkmenistan and Iran. Spain has high potential and already grows Bt corn and thus has the regulatory system in place to facilitate the commercialization of Bt cotton; potential is lower in Greece because of lower infestation although hectarage is significant (381,000 hectares). Field trials have been conducted in Zimbabwe where there is good potential and where small farmers recently made a plea for Bt cotton because under current conditions they cannot afford the insecticides, which are a prerequisite for profitable production of conventional cotton. The President of Nigeria has recently allocated significant funding for biotechnology and Bt cotton is an attractive proposition for Nigeria (180,000 hectares of cotton) as it is for West African countries such as Chad (312,000 hectares), Cote d’Ivoire (285,000 hectares) and Cameroon (202,000 hectares) where cotton is a very important cash and export crop.

Category 8 (savings of 50 to <100 MT) includes 10 countries, three from Asia (Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Syria), all with low infestations, four from East and West Africa (Tanzania, Togo, Zambia, and Sudan), all with medium to high lepidopteran pest levels and three from Latin America (Colombia, Argentina and Peru), all with high pest levels and high potential. Five percent of the cotton area in Argentina is already Bt cotton with the first introductory planting of Bt cotton in Colombia in 2002. Tanzania has declared an interest in the technology. With the exception of the Central Asian States, all other countries in Category 8 represent potential opportunities for Bt cotton.

There are 16 countries in Category 9 (savings of <50 MT), the last category, including five from Asia (Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and the Philippines), eight from Africa (Uganda, South Africa, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya and Guinea), and three from Latin America (Mexico, Bolivia, and Ecuador). All of these countries have medium to high pest infestations and are potential opportunities for Bt cotton even though some have a small hectarage of cotton. Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia are already growing Bt cotton, and it has been field-trialed in Thailand. Several countries, growing 30,000 hectares of cotton, or less, in both Asia and Africa, including Vietnam, Philippines and Kenya have expressed interest in the technology and indicated their desire to field-trial Bt cotton. From the country’s viewpoint, high levels of lepidopteran pests and intensive insecticide applications merit the adoption of Bt cotton despite the relatively small cotton hectarage.

The data in Table 60 confirm that Asia is characterized by a few large cotton-growing countries dominating the region with high levels of infestation. In terms of global share and benefits, India (8.7 million hectares), China (4.8 million hectares) and Pakistan (3.1 million hectares) and Australia (400,00 hectares), collectively grow 50% of the world’s cotton area and stand to gain the most from Bt cotton. This translates to a substantial potential benefit from Bt cotton for these four cotton-growing countries in Asia. Pakistan represents the only country with high potential that has not yet adopted the technology. The other cotton-growing countries in South East Asia and South Asia represent relatively smaller areas but nevertheless important potential opportunities from the perspective of national programs.

Whereas there are nine developing countries that have a potential to benefit in Asia, there are 22 developing countries in Africa, all with small to medium hectarage of cotton ranging from 30,000 to 500,000 hectares. There are opportunities for countries from all regions of Africa to adopt Bt cotton, where the levels of lepidopteran pests are medium to high, with heavy insecticide applications. In West and Central Africa there are 12 countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, Benin, Nigeria, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Togo, Zambia, Ghana, Senegal, and Guinea), in Eastern and Southern Africa another 9 countries (Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Tanzania, Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar and South Africa), and Egypt in North Africa. Although cotton production in many of these countries is modest to small, it is often the only cash crop and represents an important, or the most important export commodity. The fact that the global share is relatively small should not lead to an underestimation of the important potential benefits that can accrue to African countries. South Africa, with a modest hectarage of cotton, is already deriving significant benefits, which are of particular importance to small holders. Thus, small cotton farmers in Africa could gain significant benefits from cotton which would not only impact on production and economics but also on the health and social aspects. The latter is of particular relevance to women who farm approximately 50% of the cotton in the countries of Africa. Of the 22 African countries that can potentially benefit from Bt cotton, only one, South Africa, has adopted Bt cotton, but there are several countries that are expressing increased interest including Egypt, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Kenya.

Compared with 17 potential countries that could benefit from Bt cotton in Asia and 22 in Africa, there are only 9 potential beneficiary countries in the Americas. The nine countries in the Americas have medium or high levels of lepidopteran pests and stand to gain about 10% of the global benefits from Bt cotton with the US being the main beneficiary. Of the 9 countries that are potential beneficiaries, four have already adopted Bt cotton, USA, Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia. Argentina (152,000 hectares) and Mexico (80,000 hectares) have modest hectarages of Bt cotton with both large and small farmers benefiting from the technology. The largest unexplored potential for Bt cotton in the Americas is Brazil, which grows approximately 750,000 hectares of cotton, mainly in an intensive production system in the southern region of the country, where pest infestation is medium requiring 8 or more insecticide sprays per season. Paraguay grows a modest area of cotton of 150,000 hectares where pest infestation is high, requiring about 8 sprays per season. Peru grows 102,000 hectares and applies about 4 sprays per season. Bolivia (15,000 hectares) and Ecuador (5,000 hectares) grow small areas of cotton, but with a potential for significant benefits to small holders.

In Europe, only two countries are potential beneficiaries of Bt cotton – Spain with 88,000 hectares and Greece with 381,000 hectares. Both countries suffer from lepidopteran pests but the damage level is significantly higher in Spain, which offers the highest potential gains. Field experiments in Spain indicate that up to 5 sprays could be saved with the use of Bt cotton (Edge et al 2001). Greece applies an average of four or more sprays per season.

The data in Table 60 is a first cut at estimating the potential for Bt cotton in the respective countries. It does not take into account the additional and potentially substantial benefits associated with increases in yield from Bt cotton and labor savings from reducing insecticide sprays by 50%. National governments interested in pursuing the potential benefits of Bt cotton for their respective countries can implement comparative field trials of Bt and conventional cotton to generate national domestic data to reliably assess these benefits at the field and national level. These field trials would require approval under the appropriate national regulatory framework, which, if not already in place would have to be established using Bt cotton as the technology to facilitate its promulgation. In practice it is evident that for a country to be a beneficiary, other criteria need to be met, including the necessary infrastructure to manage and commercialize the technology, seed processing and distribution, implementation of an Insect Resistance Management strategy, and adherence to intellectual property rights. These factors, as well as the hectarage of cotton will impact on the decision of a country to commercialize Bt cotton. For smaller countries in the same region, there is an opportunity to cooperate in commercializing the technology, because regional cooperation can often provide the critical mass that is not possible at a national level. Cooperation brings added advantages of the benefits that result from the collective comparative advantages of partners, sharing of costs, and harmonization of regulatory procedures.

From a global viewpoint, an international initiative to extend the adoption of Bt cotton must also anticipate and consider the implications of a significant expansion in the global area of Bt cotton. These considerations at the international level are similar to those at the national level and include necessary global strategies for responsibly managing and optimizing the durability of resistance, and the spatial and temporal deployment of different varieties carrying different sources of resistance. It is a prerequisite to establish an international mechanism to formulate, coordinate and oversee a global strategy for deploying Bt cotton responsibly and effectively without the onerous bureaucracy that usually paralyses such legitimate endeavors. Whereas globalization presents such new challenges in terms of international collaboration, it also presents new opportunities for developing countries to access new technologies that otherwise would be unavailable to them. The global deployment of Bt cotton presents new opportunities for public and private organizations to collaborate in a win-win mode to bring environmental, economic, health and social benefits to small and large farmers and society at large in developing countries. Failure to extend the adoption of Bt cotton to more developing countries that wish to benefit from it will deny their farmers superior technology and further disadvantage them relative to their counterparts in industrial and developing countries who are adopting Bt cotton. From a biosafety viewpoint the natural barriers to outcrossing in the cotton crop makes it a model candidate for adoption in developing countries. Similarly, its principal use as a fiber crop, rather than a food/feed-crop, facilitates its acceptance by the public at large, particularly in view of the multiple and significant environmental, economic and social benefits it delivers. Furthermore, there is now six years of experience in six developing countries, on all three continents of the South, which have already commercialized the technology and can share their experience.

In summary, Bt cotton is a proven safe and effective technology that can deliver substantial and significant benefits to society at large – this makes Bt cotton a unique candidate for extended deployment in developing countries. With the adoption of any technology, there is always a risk that unintended or unforeseen effects could present new challenges. However, with the significant and substantial proven benefits that Bt cotton offers developing countries, the greatest risk is not to explore the technology, and thus be certain to suffer the consequences of inferior technology that will disadvantage farmers in developing countries who have to compete in international markets. The opportunities for capturing the potential benefits that Bt cotton offers the developing countries are summarized in the highlights that close this chapter on the global potential benefits of Bt cotton – the challenges and the opportunities.