ISAAA Brief No. 29

4. Value of Transgenic Crops in the Context of the Global Crop Protection Market

The principal aim is to present a consolidated set of data that will facilitate a knowledge-based discussion of the potential benefits and risks that Bt maize offers global society. The topics presented include:

Approximately 75 countries in both the industrial and developing world, each grow at least 100,000 hectares of maize; the total of 140 million hectares produces 600 million MT of maize grain per year, valued at $65 billion annually, based on the 2003 international price of $108/MT. Developing countries plant two-thirds of the global maize area, and industrial countries one-third. The top five producers of maize are the US 229 million MT, China 124 m MT, Brazil 35.5 m MT, Mexico 19 m MT and France 16 m MT. Of the top 25 maize countries in the world 8 are industrial and 17 are developing countries including 9 from Africa, 5 from Asia and 3 from Latin America. There are approx. 200 million maize farmers worldwide, 98% of whom farm in developing countries; 75% of maize farmers are in Asia (105 million in China alone), between 15 and 20% in Africa and 5% in Latin America. Two thirds of the maize seed sold globally is hybrid and only 20 % is farmer-saved seed. In fact, hybrids are the predominant seed type in many of the principal developing countries which have a seed distribution system already in place for providing Bt maize to farmers; for example 84% of the 105 million Chinese maize farmers buy hybrid seed, and 81% of all maize seed used in Eastern and Southern Africa is hybrid.

The lepidopteran pests, particularly the stem borer complex, are a major constraint to increased productivity, and are of economic importance in most maize-growing countries throughout the world. Just under half (46%) of the maize area in the 25 key maize-growing countries have medium (40% area infested in temperate areas) to high levels (60% area infested in tropics/subtropics) of infestation with lepidopteran pests. Corn rootworm infests 20 million hectares in the Americas, requiring more insecticide than any other pest in the US, with losses and control measures in the US costing $1 billion per annum. The global losses due to all insect pests is 9%, equivalent to 52 million MT of maize, valued at $5.7 billion annually and consuming insecticide valued at $550 million. Losses associated with lepidopteran pests, that can be controlled by cry1Ab, are estimated to cause losses of 4.5%, equivalent to half the total losses from insect pests of maize.

Bt maize has proved to be a safe and effective product. Having undergone rigorous testing for food and feed safety, it has provided environmentally friendly and effective control of targeted pests, and the resistance is still durable after seven years of deployment on 43 million hectares. It is the first Bt maize product widely commercialized with proactively implemented, science-based insect resistant management strategies featuring refugia (areas planted to non-Bt maize) combined with high dose technology. Global deployment of the cry1Ab gene in Bt maize has the potential to increase maize production by up to 35 million MT valued at $3.7 billion per year; yield gains due to Bt maize are estimated at 5% in the temperate maize growing areas and 10% in the tropical areas, where there are more and overlapping generations of pests leading to higher infestations and losses. From a global perspective the potential for Bt maize in the near to mid-term is substantial. There are several reasons for this:

Farmers assign Bt maize high value because it is a convenient and cost effective technology that allows them to manage risk in an uncertain environment and offers insurance against devastating crop losses in years when pest infestations are unusually high. For example, benefits from using Bt to control corn rootworm in the US alone, where it infests 13 million hectares, are projected at $460 million annually of which farmers would gain two-thirds and technology developers one-third. Producer gains of $289 million would be associated with increased yields, lower production costs and a significant decrease (2,300 MT a.i, or more) in insecticide use, which is currently the highest for any pest in the US. Global deployment of Bt or novel genes to control the principal lepidopteran pests of maize as well as corn rootworm has the potential to substitute up to 40 to 50% of the current 10,700 MT (a.i) of insecticides applied to maize globally, valued at approximately $550 million annually; this has significant environmental implications.

The potential yield gains of up to 35 million MT, attainable from the first generation of Bt maize (cry1Ab), with more gains to come from the second generation of Bt maize and novel gene technology, represent a challenge and an opportunity to contribute to feed and food security in 2020, when, for the first time ever, maize demand will exceed the demands for wheat and rice. The challenge is to produce an additional 266 million MT globally to meet an unprecedented global demand totaling approximately 850 million MT of maize by 2020, fuelled by more demand for meat by a more affluent global society. The 35 million MT potential gain from Bt maize amounts to almost a 15% contribution to the additional 266 million MT needed by 2020. Of the additional 266 million tons required globally in 2020, 80%, or 213 million MT, will be required by developing countries and the formidable challenge for them is to optimize domestic production to meet most of their own additional needs, with imports expected to continue to provide only around 10%. It is projected that Bt maize has the technological potential to deliver benefits on 40 to 45 million hectares in the near to mid term compared with the 10 million hectares it occupies today. This should be an incentive for major maize consuming developing countries, such as China and Brazil, to approve and adopt Bt maize because of the significant and multiple benefits it offers, including less risks associated with food and feed security. The major constraints are the lack of regulatory capacity in many developing countries, with acceptance, and trade issues being equally important, especially relative to the market influence of the European Union. Bt maize is likely to continue to experience high growth rates in the near-term in the traditional markets of the US, Canada, Argentina, South Africa, Spain, Philippines and Honduras. Subject to regulatory approval and acceptance, Asia offers significant new opportunities particularly in China and in India, Indonesia, and Thailand. Other important markets include Brazil and Mexico in Latin America and Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria on the African continent.

Acceptance will be the major factor governing approval and adoption in Eastern European countries such as Romania and Hungary, which are EU accession countries. In Western Europe, France, Italy and Germany have much to gain from the technology, but political considerations related to acceptance have continued to result in rejection of the technology except in Spain where Bt maize has been a success, occupying 10% of the national maize area in 2003, having doubled from 5% in 2002.

Bt maize is a proven safe and effective technology that has the potential to deliver benefits on 25 million hectares through hybrid systems in temperate mega-environments, amongst which China offers the most important opportunity. In the tropical environments with a potential of 18 million hectares of Bt maize through hybrid systems, the most important opportunity is in Brazil. Bt maize offers a unique opportunity and an incentive for major maize consuming developing countries to approve and adopt Bt maize and benefit from the multiple and significant benefits it offers in terms of a safer and more affordable food and feed, which can coincidentally make a major contribution to food and feed security and to the alleviation of hunger and malnutrition which claims 24,000 lives a day in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Table 1	Global Area of Transgenic Crops, 1996 to 2002
Table 2	Global Area of Transgenic Crops in 2001 and 2002: Industrial and Developing Countries
Table 3	Global Area of Transgenic Crops in 2001 and 2002: by Country
Table 4	Global Area of Transgenic Crops in 2001 and 2002: by Crop
Table 5	Global Area of Transgenic Crops in 2001 and 2002: by Trait
Table 6	Dominant Transgenic Crops, 2002
Table 7	Transgenic Crop Area as % of Global Area of Principal Crops, 2002
Table 8	Estimated Value of Global Transgenic Seed Market, 1995 to 2002 ($ millions)
Table 9	Global Crop Protection Market in 2002: by Product (Value in $ millions)
Table 10	Value of Global Transgenic Crops in 2002: by Crop and Region ($ millions)
Table 11	Global Crop Protection Market, 2002: by Industrial/Developing Country and Product ($ millions)
Table 12	Global Crop Protection Market, in 2002: by Country Expressed as Percentage of Total Market
Table 13	Global Crop Protection Market, in 2002: by Crop Expressed as Percentage of Total Market
Table 14	Estimates of Global R&D Expenditures on Crop Biotechnology: 2001
Table 15	Global Value of Transgenic Crop Market 1996 – 2010
Table 16	Latest Estimated Values (US$ millions) of the Commercial Markets for Seed and Planting Material for the Top 20 Countries
Table 17	Selected Highlights of Crop Biotechnology Developments in Industry, 2002
Table 18	Global Hectarage of Maize (Millions of Hectares) by Global Region, 2002
Table 19	Top 10 Countries in Maize Production 2002
Table 20	Maize Area, Yield and Production for Top 25 Maize Countries in 2002
Table 21	Number of Maize Farmers in the World and Average Maize Holding per Farm
Table 22	Number of Global Maize Farmers, Expressed as % by Region
Table 23	Number of Maize Farmers (Millions) in China, by Region, and Average Maize
	Area/Hectares per Farm
Table 24	Maize Hectarage Grown in the 4 Mega-Environments
Table 25	Current and Potential Yields (t/ha) in Developing Countries
Table 26	Area Sown to Maize Hybrids, Open Pollinated Varieties (OPVs) and Farmer-
	Saved Seeds in the Regions in the Industrial and Developing Countries in 1999
Table 27	World Maize Utilization 1992 – 1994
Table 28	Maize, Wheat and Rice Demand Projections, 1997 and 2020 (Millions of Metric Tons [MT])
Table 29	Maize Demand for Developing Countries in 1997 and 2020 (Millions of Metric Tons [MT])
Table 30	Demand and Use of Maize in 2020
Table 31	Major Insect Species Causing Economic Losses in Maize in Tropical, Subtropical, Highland and Temperate Maize Mega-Environments
Table 32	Distribution and Severity of Principal Insect Pests in the US
Table 33	Distribution and Level of Infestation of Principal Insect Pests in China in Different Mega-Environments
Table 34	Distribution and Severity of Principal Insect Pests in Brazil in Different Mega-Environments
Table 35	Distribution of the Principal Maize Pests - Borers, Armyworms, Earworms (Lepidoptera) and Rootworms (Coleoptera) in the Top 25 Maize Countries with 1 Million Hectares, or More of Maize
Table 36	Estimated Average Levels of Infestation of Major Lepidopteran Pests and Rootworm in the Top 25 Maize Countries with 1 Million Hectares or More of Maize
Table 37	Range of Actual and Potential Losses from Maize Insect Pests for Different Global Regions
Table 38	Global and Regional Estimates of Crop Losses Due to Insect Pests of Maize
Table 39	Summary of Farm Level Impact on Yield of Bt Maize in the US 1997-2000
Table 40	Yield Advantage of Bt Maize in the US 1995 – 2002
Table 41	Estimates of Net National Economic Gains (Losses) to Farmers Planting Transgenic Bt Maize in USA 1996 –2001
Table 42	Survey of Bt Maize Potential in Europe
Table 43	Yield Comparisons of Bt and Conventional Maize in Spain 1997 (MT/Hectare)
Table 44	Comparison of Performance of Bt and Conventional Maize in the Rhine Valley in Germany 1998-2002
Table 45	Comparison of Performance of Bt and Conventional Maize in the Oderbruch Region, Eastern Germany 2000-2002
Table 46	Profitability of Bt Maize Versus Conventional Maize in South Africa
Table 47	Summary of Yield Gains in Favor of Bt Maize (cry1Ab) and Estimates of Loss due to Stem Borers
Table 48	Global Distribution of Corn Rootworm
Table 49	Estimated Distribution of Benefits from Deploying Bt cry3Bb1 in the US in a Simulation for 2000
Table 50	Value and Quantity (MT a.i.) of Global Maize Insecticide Market, by Region, 2001
Table 51	Mode of Application of Insecticides in the USA and Brazil in MT a.i.
Table 52	Use of Insecticides on Maize in the US, by Target Pest, 2001
Table 53	Percentage of Maize Hectares Treated with Insecticides for Targeted Insect
	Pests in Brazil
Table 54	Genetic Characteristics of Bt Maize
Table 55	Bt Maize Events that have been Approved for Commercial Planting
Table 56	Efficacy of Cry1Ab Protein in Controlling Selected Lepidopteran Maize Insect Pests; Acute Sensitivity to Cry1Ab Endotoxin Protein
Table 57	Performance of MON 810 (cry 1Ab) for Controlling Selected Maize Insect Pests in Yield Gard® Maize
Table 58	Efficacy of Event TC 1507 with the cry1Fa2 Gene in Herculex® 1 Bt Maize
Table 59	Future Gene Products Conferring Resistance to Insect Pests of Maize
Table 60	Global Adoption of Bt Maize (Bt and Bt/Herbicide Tolerance) 1996 to 2002 (Millions of Hectares)
Table 61	Adoption of Bt Maize, by Country, by Year 1996 – 2002
Table 62	Gains Associated with Bt Maize in the US
Table 63	Distribution of Bt Maize Benefits to Different Stakeholders in the US
Table 64	Summary of Published Reports on the Potential Effect of Bt Maize Expressing Cry1Ab Protein on Non-Target Organisms and Predators
Table 65	Comparison of Bt Toxin No-Observable-Effects-Concentration (NOEC) in Soil, Relative to the Estimated Environmental Concentration (EEC)
Table 66	No-Observable-Effect-Level (NOEL) for Mortality Following Exposure of Rats to Purified Bt Toxic Protein
Table 67	Concentration of Protein (Microgram per Gram of Wet Plant Tissue) in Various Maize Tissues at Plant Maturity and Estimated Grams of Protein per Acre of Maize
Table 68	Health Effects of Fumonisins in Various Species
Table 69	Impact of Maize Grain Consumption and Fumonisin Level on the PMTDI
Table 70	Fumonisin (µg/kg) and Ergosterol (mg/kg) Levels in Maize Kernels in Italy 1997, 1998 and 1999
Table 71	Levels of Mycotoxins, Fumonisin Recorded in Conventional Maize Grain
Table 72	Agricultural Trade Between US and EU: 2001
Table 73	US Maize Exports to Different Regions, 2001 Expressed as Percentage of Total Maize Exports
Table 74	US Exports of Maize to the EU
Table 75	Potential Global Area for Bt Maize (cry1Ab)
Table 76	Estimated Potential Gains from Deploying Bt Maize with the cry1Ab Gene for the Control of Maize Pests, Mainly Stem Borers, in the Top 25 Maize Growing Countries
Table 77	Estimation of Global Losses due to Maize Pests and Gains from Bt Maize
Table 78	Projected Relative Gains in Yield for Different Regions from Deploying Bt Maize with cry1Ab

Figures

Figure 1	Global Area of Transgenic Crops, 1996 to 2002
Figure 2	Global Area of Transgenic Crops, 1996 to 2002: Industrial and Developing Countries
Figure 3	Global Area of Transgenic Crops, 1996 to 2002: by Country
Figure 4	Global Area of Transgenic Crops, 1996 to 2002: by Crop
Figure 5	Global Area of Transgenic Crops, 1996 to 2002: by Trait
Figure 6	Global Adoption Rates (%) for Principal Transgenic Crops, 2002
Figure 7	Distribution of World Maize Production
Figure 8	Illustration of Sites on the Maize Plant Where Principal Insect Pests Cause Damage
Figure 9	Maize Borer Map of the World
Figure 10	Global Distribution of Corn Rootworm
Figure 11	25 Top Maize Producing Countries with Details of Maize Area (Million Hectares [Mha], Proportion of Maize Area Infested (Low, Medium, High), and Principal Insect Pests
Figure 12	Yield Loss from European Corn Borer
Figure 13	European Corn Borer Densities in Illinois, 1943-2002
Figure 14	Global Adoption of Bt Maize (Bt and Bt/Herbicide Tolerance) 1996 to 2002 (Millions of Hectares)

APPENDIX

Table 1A	Latest Estimates for Seed Exports Worldwide, by Crop (US$ Millions)
Table 2A	Latest Estimates for Seed Exports: Major Exporting Countries (US$ Millions)

Global Review of Commercialized Transgenic Crops: 2002 Feature: Bt Maize