Publications: ISAAA Briefs

- download Part A (English) and download Part B (English)
- download (French)

Contents

Executive Summary

List of Tables and Figures

Introduction

Overview of Global Status and Distribution of Commercial Trangenic Crops

Value of the Global Trangenic Seed Market, 1995 t0 2001

Value of Transgenic Crops in the Context of the Global Crop Protection Market

Global R&D Expenditures in Crop Biotechnology and Future GM Crop Markets

Overview of the Commercial Seed Industry

Overview of Developments in the Crop Biotechnology Industry

Economic Benefits from GM Crops

Bt Cotton

Acknowledgements

Also view : Portuguese, Spanish , Africaans and French versions

Global GM Crop Area

• In 2001 global area of transgenic or GM crops was 52.6 million hectares or 130 million acres, grown in thirteen countries by about 5 million farmers, over 75% of whom were small resource-poor farmers in developing countries. The US was the largest grower of GM crops (68%), with one quarter of the GM crop area grown in the developing countries, principally in Argentina and China.
  
• The principal GM crops were soybean, corn, cotton and canola. On a global basis, 46% of the 72 million hectares of soybean was GM, 20% of the 34 million hectares of cotton, 11 % of the 140 million hectares of maize, and 11% of the 25 million hectares of canola.
  
• In the first six years of GM crop commercialization, 1996 to 2001, a cumulative total of over 175 million hectares of GM crops were planted globally which met the expectations of millions of small and large farmers in both industrial and developing countries.
  
• Global GM crop area is expected to continue to grow in 2002.

Value of the Global Transgenic Seed Market in 2001

• The value of the global transgenic seed market is based on the sale price of transgenic seed plus any technology fees that apply. The value in 2001 was $3.8 billion up from $3.0 billion in 2000.

Global R& D Expenditures in Crop Biotechnology in 2001

• Current global R&D expenditure in the private and public sectors is $4.4 billion with over 95% of the total in the industrial countries, led by the US. China is the leading investor in R&D crop biotechnology in the developing countries, followed by India.

Overview of the Commercial Seed Industry

• An overview of the $30 billion plus commercial seed industry is presented. Expressed as a proportion of the global commercial seed market, transgenic seed represented approximately 13% of the estimated $30 billion plus global commercial seed market in 2001.

Overview of Developments in the Crop Biotechnology Industry

• The major developments in crop biotechnology in the private sector in 2001 are summarized. Specific developments are discussed in each of four areas: acquisitions, mergers and spin-offs; genomics and product discovery; patents and licensing; and re-registration, approvals and commercialization.

Economic Benefits of GM Crops

• In the 2000 ISAAA Global Review of Transgenic Crops, an assessment was published of the global benefits associated with the principal GM crops - soybean, corn, cotton and canola. In the interim, several studies and surveys have been conducted and these are summarized to provide the reader with the current information on benefits from GM crops; these include an overview of the current and potential economic benefits of GM crops in the US, RR soybeans in Argentina, Bt maize in the Philippines and Spain and a review of the investments of China in crop biotechnology.

Feature for the 2001 Review: Bt Cotton

The content of this chapter is structured chronologically to provide the reader with a global overview of the cotton crop, present available data for assessing the performance of Bt cotton to-date and project its global potential for the future. The focus on developing countries is consistent with ISAAA's mission to assist developing countries in assessing the potential of new technologies. The principal aim is to present a consolidated set of data that will facilitate a knowledge-based discussion of the potential benefits that Bt cotton offers global society.

• A total of 33.5 million hectares of cotton were grown globally in 2001, worth approximately $20 billion. Developing countries planted over 70% of the global area, and industrial countries grew 20%, mainly the USA (5.6 million hectares), as well as Australia, Greece and Spain. The remaining 10% was grown in Uzbekistan and other Central and West Asian countries. Asia has about 60% of world cotton, with India, China, and Pakistan dominating with 50% of global hectarage. Latin America grows <5% where Brazil is the only major grower. Africa has almost 15% of global cotton with 22 countries growing small (30,000 hectares) to modest (500,000 hectares) areas of cotton. There are approximately 20 million cotton farmers globally, 97% of whom farm in developing countries, 2% in Central and West Asian countries and <1% in the industrial countries. Most cotton growers in developing countries are small resource-poor farmers growing 2 hectares or less of cotton.
  
• Insect pests represent a major constraint to increased productivity in most cotton growing countries. The yield losses and the cost of controlling insect pests with insecticides costs cotton farmers an estimated $5 billion annually. The most important insect pests globally are the caterpillar moths - the lepidopteran pests - amongst which the 'bollworms' are the most damaging with losses and insecticide control costs totaling about $3 billion per year. Approximately 88% of the global cotton area suffer from medium to high infestation of lepidopteran pests. On a global basis, cotton farmers used $1.7 billion worth of insecticides in 2001 in their attempt to control cotton insect pests - more insecticides are applied to cotton than any other crop. Cotton consumes 20% of all insecticides applied to all crops globally.
  
• A novel method of controlling lepidopteran pests is the use of Bt genes from a soil bacterium, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). Bt genes have been incorporated in cotton through genetic engineering and were first introduced commercially in 1996 in the US and Australia in Bollgard® varieties. Bt cotton has been developed by private sector companies and deployed globally in nine countries. In China, the public sector has also released Bt cotton varieties, which compete with Bt cotton from the private sector. Since 1996 a total of nine countries, seven developing and two industrial countries have successfully grown 13 million hectares of Bt cotton. These include USA, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia (pre-commercial) in the Americas, China, India, Indonesia and Australia in Asia and South Africa on the African continent.
  
• The potential development of resistance poses the biggest challenge to Bt cotton and the development and implementation of Insect Resistance Management (IRM) strategies is essential. Countries that have adopted Bt cotton have successfully implemented different IRM strategies and no resistance to Bt cotton has been detected to-date despite the fact that 13 million hectares of Bt cotton have been grown worldwide since 1996; several claims from critics proved to be unfounded. The recent approval in Australia of Bollgard II will considerably fortify IRM strategies because it has two independent Bt genes that confer resistance; other Bt and novel genes for cotton insect resistance are expected to be available by 2004. From a global viewpoint, any international initiative to substantially extend the adoption of Bt cotton must also anticipate and consider the implications of a significant expansion in the global area of Bt cotton. These considerations at the international level are similar to those at the national level and include necessary global strategies for responsibly managing and optimizing the durability of resistance, and the spatial and temporal deployment of different varieties carrying different sources of resistance. An effective international mechanism to formulate, coordinate and oversee a global strategy for deploying Bt cotton responsibly and effectively could play a seminal role if it could be operated without onerous bureaucracy.
  
• Eight country case studies are presented which provide detailed and current information on all aspects of the cultivation, adoption and performance of Bt cotton, including an assessment of the agronomic, economic, environmental, health and social impact of the technology. Country studies are presented for the USA, Australia, China, India, Mexico, Argentina, South Africa and Indonesia which collectively have six years' experience with Bt cotton and grew almost 20 million hectares of cotton in 2001, equivalent to 60 % of the global hectarage of cotton.
  
• All countries that have introduced Bt cotton have derived significant and multiple benefits. These include increases in yield, decreased production costs, a reduction of at least 50% in insecticide applications, resulting in substantial environmental and health benefits to small producers, and significant economic and social benefits. In the US in 2001, the economic benefit from Bt cotton was estimated at $103 million or $50 per hectare. In China in 2001, Bt cotton increased yield on 1.5 million hectares and reduced insecticide use by 78,000 tons (formulated product) resulting in significantly fewer farmer insecticide poisonings. In 2001, Bt cotton in China increased annual farmer income by $500/hectare, equivalent to a national benefit of $750 million. Small resource-poor cotton farmers in the Makhathini Flats in South Africa, 50% of whom are women, derived similar benefits including significant social benefits devoting less time to carrying water and spraying insecticide and more time caring for children, attending to the sick, and family duties. To put a human face on the benefits of Bt cotton, for the average cotton holding of 1.7 hectares in the Makhathini Flats in South Africa, in a typical season, a woman farmer is relieved of 12 days of arduous spraying, saves over 1,000 liters of water (over 250 US gallons), walks 100 km less, suffers less insecticide poisoning and increases her income significantly by approximately $85 per season, through using Bt cotton, rather than conventional cotton.
  
• Up to 5 million farmers benefited from Bt cotton in 2001, most of them small resource-poor farmers in developing countries, mainly in China and also in South Africa where Bt cotton contributed to the alleviation of poverty by increasing incomes of small farmers substantially. On a global basis, the benefits from the deployment of Bt cotton between 1998 and 2001 were estimated to be $1.7 billion.
  
• In terms of environmental impact, Bt cotton has resulted in a significant decrease in the volume of insecticides applied to cotton, which in turn reduced insecticide runoff into watersheds and aquifers. In the US alone for the three year period 1998, 1999 and 2001 the volume of insecticides applied to cotton was reduced by 2,979 MT (active ingredient). In China for the three period 1999 to 2001, insecticide tonnage on cotton was reduced by a substantial 123,000 MT of formulated product. Consequently, insecticide poisonings of cotton farmers, applying insecticides by hand with knapsacks, decreased by up to 75%. Similar evidence on insecticide poisonings has been reported for South Africa.
  
• Cotton is in many ways an ideal candidate for introduction to cotton-growing countries as the pilot and model GM crop. Its principal use as a fiber crop, rather than a food/feed-crop, facilitates its regulation and acceptance by the public at large. From a biosafety viewpoint it is a self pollinating tetraploid that will not outcross with native diploid cottons and the movement of the large pollen, which is not dispersed by wind, is limited to a few meters. Cotton is not found as a weed in the global production areas and Bt is unlikely to confer an advantage that would result in Bt cotton establishing as a weed. Thus, the potential biosafety consequences are negligible due to the limited movement of pollen, natural genetic barriers that preclude outcrossing with native cotton, with no known compatibility with any wild relatives. The safety of the Cry1Ac protein is well documented and the Cry1Ac gene is very unlikely to confer any competitive advantage. With the adoption of any technology, there is always a risk that unintended or unforeseen effects could present new challenges. However, with the significant and substantial proven benefits that Bt cotton offers developing countries, the greatest risk is not to explore the technology, and thus be certain to suffer the consequences of inferior technology that will disadvantage farmers in developing countries who have to compete in international markets.
  
• To-date, only nine countries have adopted Bt cotton, which begs the question of what is the global potential for Bt cotton in the 50 key countries that grow cotton throughout the world. In the absence of field data to assess the performance of Bt cotton in the 50 countries, the projected saving in insecticide that would be associated with the use of Bt cotton can be used as an indicator of the potential of Bt cotton globally. The annual projected insecticide saving for the countries with medium to high infestations of lepidopteran pests is 33,000 MT valued at $690 million and equivalent to 37% of the 81,200 MT of cotton insecticides used globally in 2001. The gain of $690 million excludes the significant additional benefits that would accrue from reducing labor needs for insecticide sprays by half, plus the substantial additional income from the higher yields of Bt cotton. Potential annual global water savings, from optimizing the deployment of Bt cotton globally would reduce insecticide use by half, saving an estimated 6.3 billion liters of water (of which 1.7 billion liters have already been saved) or approximately 1.8 billion US gallons. To put this saving into context, 6.3 billion liters would supply a city of 1.5 million people in Africa, with their per capita consumption of 47 liters per day of water, for approximately 3 months

The six countries that have the potential for significant benefits from Bt cotton have either already adopted the technology, (China, India, USA and Australia) or are exploring its development (Pakistan and Brazil). The challenge is to provide the same opportunity for the potential beneficiary countries, with small to modest areas of cotton, in the developing world where several factors preclude access to Bt cotton. It is important that these smaller cotton-growing countries with resource-poor cotton farmers are offered the option of commercial access to Bt cotton so that they are not disadvantaged by being denied the significant benefits that accrue to adopters of the technology. There are 30 such developing countries, 21 in Africa, five in Asia and four in Latin America that grow small to modest areas of cotton that are potential beneficiaries of commercial Bt cotton but because of various constraints do not have the option to explore the potential benefits that Bt cotton offers in their own countries. The constraints range from absence of a regulatory framework that would allow field-testing of Bt cotton to determine its performance, lack of trained personnel, material and financial resources or the transaction cost may be too high for commercializing a relatively small area of cotton. Experience to-date in several developing countries has clearly demonstrated that Bt cotton can deliver significant economic, environmental, health and social benefits to small resource poor farmers that are assigned high priority by the donor community. Developing countries interested in evaluating Bt cotton and gaining commercial access to the technology in their own countries need assistance from the international public and private sector development community which pledged its support at Johannesburg, for a more sustainable agriculture, a better quality of life and alleviation of poverty for the poorest of the poor, which include millions of resource-poor cotton farmers. The compelling case for providing more developing countries the option of sharing in the substantial environmental, health, economic and social benefits delivered by Bt cotton to millions of resource-poor cotton farmers in developing countries on millions of hectares over the last six years, represents a challenge for both the donor community and the developing countries which are the potential beneficiaries. Bt cotton presents a unique opportunity to utilize technology to contribute to the alleviation of poverty as proposed in the 2001 UNDP Human Development Report.

Appendix